New housing price forecast for 2023, according to the Bank of Spain

El aumento de las tasas de interés ha demostrado ser una especie de freno en el mercado inmobiliario de rápido movimiento. El precio de las hipotecas se ha visto afectado por el aumento del coste del dinero y su impacto se extiende a todo el sector, dejando su huella en la demanda de vivienda, compraventas, precios y valores inmobiliarios. Entonces, ¿qué pasará? Conoce aquí cuál es la previsión del precio de la vivienda para 2023 publicada por el Banco de España.

¿Bajarán los pisos en 2023?

El propio Banco de España prevé una caída de pisos en 2023 debido a que la inversión en inmuebles seguirá desacelerándose en lo que resta de año (este último trimestre) y se prolongará hasta 2023.

En su último “ Informe Trimestral de la Economía Española ”, publicado recientemente, afirma que los indicadores muestran una pérdida de dinamismo a principios del tercer trimestre del año y que puede haber una aceleración en la primera mitad del próximo año.

Los últimos datos ofrecidos oficialmente por el Ministerio de Agenda Urbana ya anunciaron la congelación del mercado inmobiliario.

Verá, las aprobaciones de obra nueva apenas crecieron un 0,3% en el último año en comparación con 2021. Solo en julio, las visas aprobadas fueron 8.869, o la cifra más baja del mes desde 2017, sin contar, por supuesto, la caída de 2020 debido a la pandemia.

A pesar de esta baja cifra, se espera que siga cayendo. Además, según el Banco de España, algunas de las razones de esta situación son el aumento del coste de los préstamos bancarios, la pérdida de dinamismo de los préstamos de obra nueva y el aumento del precio de los materiales de construcción.

Aun así, cabe señalar que, a pesar del refuerzo de las compraventas de viviendas, el nivel de compraventa de viviendas se ha mantenido muy por encima de los registradores antes de la pandemia.

Ahora bien, en cuanto a los precios de la vivienda, el Banco de España ha realizado una previsión de precios de la vivienda para 2023, que se basa en este contexto macroeconómico donde hay una alta inflación, más los factores que hemos mencionado y que detallaremos en las siguientes secciones.

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Moderación en el crecimiento del precio de la vivienda

After witnessing several months of unabated increases, housing prices seem to be starting to moderate in the remainder of 2022. Not only the Bank of Spain has made its forecasts, Bankinter also estimated a rise of 1% for the second half of the current year and the following year.

This represents, as a consequence, a slowdown compared to what the real estate sector experienced in 2021, when the upturn reached 6.4%. The bank specifies that, despite this, there are still no signs of an overheating of the sector, since the rate of effort per household is below the historical average and the balance between supply and demand is maintained.

Likewise, the forecasts of Bankinter and the Bank of Spain coincide with those of other analysts. For example, Tinsa, which has also highlighted in its latest reports the existence of clear signs of a slowdown in the real estate market as a result of inflation.

In addition, it has been noted that housing prices have moderated slightly in the second half of the year. However, there have also been notable year-on-year increases.

Then, with regard to housing prices 2023, the Bank of Spain has detailed that the growth of the same has increased slightly, reaching 8% -which is in line with the data offered by the INE- even in the face of insufficient supply to meet a relatively vigorous demand.

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What factors affect the real estate sector according to the 2023 housing price forecast?

Banks foresee some cooling in real estate activity. It is possible that housing transactions could fall by as much as 5% this year after reaching peak levels in 2021, when they surpassed 1 million sales, even in a pandemic situation.

But what are the factors that are affecting the real estate sector and, consequently, housing prices?

New construction visas

According to the latest data published by the Ministry of Transport, Mobility and Urban Agenda, new construction permits reached only 61,245 units in the first half of 2022. That is, just 0.3% more than in 2021, when approximately 61,051 visas were granted.

In July, it got a little better after 8,869 were granted, the lowest figure for the month since 2017. And you might be thinking, but how big a difference? Well, in 2020, at the height of the pandemic, 6,673 visas were granted in July.

Business investment

Several factors also suggest that the dynamism of business investment may have slowed during the course of the third quarter, even though some improvement had been seen in the face of the severity of supply shortages.

The war between Ukraine and Russia

We should not forget the most extraordinary event of the year: the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. As a result of this event, construction materials and raw materials have become significantly more expensive. Many construction companies have even decided to suspend their works.

The increase in the cost of bank credit

In the first half of 2022, a very similar dynamism to that of last year was expected. However, housing prices increased by 2.9% and are still expected to increase by approximately 1.4% more.

In this sense, the increase in costs will be marked in new homes (4.5%) compared to used homes (3.9%). As a consequence, the family effort to buy a home increased from 7.2 years of gross income to 7.6 only in 2021.

It should not be forgotten that 19% of the Spanish population lives in rented accommodation, which represents a backlog in the figures and is caused by the late emancipation of young people and the spread of remote work.

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El precio de la vivienda para 2023 previsto por los diferentes bancos en España da por hecho el reajuste de los precios de los pisos, debido al estancamiento del sector inmobiliario.

Si usted es un español nativo o un extranjero que quiere comprar su propia propiedad en España, no dude en contactar con el equipo de TAS Consultoría, que gustosamente le ofrecerá el asesoramiento legal, fiscal y contable que necesita. Contacta con nosotros en el +34 93 737 75 25.